What Do Muslims Think? Revisited

Back in December I blogged about a Pew Research poll that showed an overall decline in Muslim support for al-Qaeda and the use of suicide bombings. (Read What Do Muslims Think? here.) Well, today Harvard University IR professor Stephen Walt blogged about a report by Europol, a EU criminal intelligence agency, that cited declines in Islamist terrorist incidents and arrests in EU member states in 2009. As Walt summarizes:

In 2009, there were fewer than 300 terrorist incidents in Europe, a 33 percent decline from the previous year. The vast majority of these incidents (237 out of 294) were conducted by indigenous European separatist groups, with another forty or so attributed to leftists and/or anarchists. According to the report, a grand total of one (1) attack was conducted by Islamists. Put differently, Islamist groups were responsible for a whopping 0.34 percent of all terrorist incidents in Europe in 2009. In addition, the report notes, “the number of arrests relating to Islamist terrorism (110) decreased by 41 percent compared to 2008, which continues the trend of a steady decrease since 2006.”

The Europol report goes on to state that “In spite of the fact that only one attack was committed in the EU, Islamist terrorists still aim to cause mass casualties, as demonstrated by the attempt to create an explosion on a flight between Amsterdam and Detroit in December 2009,” so the authors certainly don’t take the threat lightly.

It’s certainly interesting to see some empirical evidence that may somewhat substantiate the Pew poll, even if it is confined to the EU. Hmmm.

To read the Europol report, click here.

To read Stephen Walt’s blog, click here.

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Hosni is Gone. Cool! Now What?

Now that the people of Egypt have forced Hosni Mubarak to step down, how will this all turn out? No one has any clue, that’s for sure.

Obviously hopes and expectations are extremely high among the populace right now and we can only hope that the military manages the transition effectively, realizing the goals and aspirations of the Revolution. If not…

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Dealing With Highly Classified Information…Ummm, Okay???

Tonight on Hannity, Sean interviewed Michele Bachmann (R-MN), who is a new member of the House Intelligence Committee. Mr. Hannity is extremely concerned about the Muslim Brotherhood, a social-political organization in Egypt that is worthy of consternation, but one that is not considered a terrorist organization by the U.S. government even though Hannity declared the MB as terrorists. Still, Hannity sought Bachmann’s opinion on the statement made by DNI James Clapper in which he said the Muslim Brotherhood was a “secular” organization. Fair enough question. Interestingly, though, Bachmann ducked it, stating twice that she couldn’t comment because she deals with highly classified information……….okaaaayyyyyyy????

So I’ve developed three very simplistic hypotheses:

1) Bachmann possesses info that the Muslim Brotherhood has the power to take over the whole world and obviously can’t share that because it would create panic everywhere.

2) Bachmann doesn’t think the Muslim Brotherhood is much of a threat and didn’t want to embarrass MB-obsessed Hannity. What a nice gal.

3) Bachmann has no clue who or what the Muslim Brotherhood is and didn’t want to embarrass herself.

Not sure which is true, but I have a hunch.

By the way, a member of the MB wrote an op-ed in the NY Times today. Read it for yourself here. Do you believe or don’t believe what they have to say? Let me know.

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If you’re interested in International Relations, you might want to pick up Daniel Drezner’s new book, Theories of International Politics and Zombies. It’s witty, a great read, and the conclusion puts it all in perspective. I told my wife that if she reads it I will read the final book in the Twilight series. The good thing is I will never have to read the final book in the Twilight series…thank God!

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Threats, Threats Everywhere

So I’m sitting at my kitchen table laughing at and shaking my head watching Hannity on Fox News Channel. Since the Tunisia uprising I’ve been glued to just about every news station, just as many of you have been. It’s fascinating stuff. You’re watching history in the making as ordinary people rise up to protest the rule of a dictator.  Yes, Mr. Biden, a dictator (in Biden’s defense, it was a wicked curve from Jim Lehrer that the slickest politicians would have had trouble fouling off). But I digress. Back to Mr. Hannity, who just emphatically stated through my Samsung that if the Muslim Brotherhood were to take power in Egypt it would be a “worldwide disaster for decades!” Really?

Okay, I’m not suggesting I know the motives of the Muslim Brotherhood (also known as Ikhwan, Arabic for “brothers”), but I am sympathetic to the fact that they are socially interwoven into parts of the Egyptian society, providing needed social services that the federal government are unable, for whatever reason, to provide to portions of its citizenry. Now, some analysts believe the MB shouldn’t be feared, others are less sanguine. But let’s look at things this way: How much power would the MB actually wield in a post-Mubarak Egypt?

It’s estimated that the MB is supported by 10%-20% of the population. In 2005 the MB won 20% of the seats in Parliament running as Independents. Since the MB is outlawed in Egypt, we could assume they are more popular than the election results would suggest. Okay, so let’s say a legal MB wins 30% of the seats in parliament. That’s not bad at all, but considering it’s not a majority and will have to cobble together a likely fragile coalition government, it’s likely to restrict the party’s most heinous objectives (if, in fact, they prove to be heinous).

And then there is the military. I’ve heard people ask what $1.3 billion in military aid to Egypt gets the U.S.? Well, it probably gets us some leverage considering that Egypt expends a total of around $3.6 billion on annual military purchases according to SIPRI. That leverage helps ensure peace with Israel and likely underwrites security in Egypt itself. Just look at the stabilizing force in Egypt during the protests; it was the army!

So let’s assume the Muslim Brotherhood does well in the September elections (assuming they are actually free and fair and Mubarak really steps aside) and win 30% of the seats in Parliament. They then barely cobble together a ruling government that could fall as soon as the MB overreaches and jeopardizes Egyptian interests…like doing something stupid with Israel, who, admittedly, they dislike. And, oh yeah, the military, which receives quite a bit of funding from the U.S., might have something to say about the MB’s decisions. In fact, they will. At this point in time I think the Muslim Brotherhood is hamstrung (hammerstrung?), just like every other political party will probably be.

Back to Hannity.  I guess die-hard neocons or paranoid and uninformed talk show hosts can spot a bogeyman around every corner. There’s always a threat out there, after all. Interesting, though, how democracy in Iraq is a noble goal, but is something to be feared in every other Arab country. Wasn’t Iraq supposed to be a shining beacon that would then lead to a blossoming of democracies in the Middle East, which would substantiate Democratic Peace Theory? (You know, democracies don’t fight democracies or, at the very least, their populace won’t fly airplanes into our buildings.)

It’s all just a little bit odd.

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I’ve been a little out of the blogging loop while watching my beloved Spurs (Tottenham, that is) completely screw up the January transfer window and fail to attract a true center forward. Maybe we can get fifth in the PL, we’ll see.

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